There’s a lot of talk about Australia’s energy future and, it does seem to be more positive than negative.
At GloBird Energy, we like to be optimistic, but perhaps a little more cautiously than some people. After all, there are a lot of moving parts that all need to mesh if we’re to achieve the ultimate goal of affordable energy that is still reliable and sustainable.
So, we decided to go in search of some data that might give us an idea of how the transition to renewable-sourced energy is tracking, without any of the accompanying rhetoric.
The global outlook
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is tracking the progress of the global energy transition toward the stated goal of 11 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity by 2030.
IRENA says this “requires an average addition of more than 1,000 GW annually” and “achieving this global pledge demands strong policy actions, strong investment, and more global collaboration”.
Some countries are all the way there already
The first country to propose 100% renewable energy was Iceland, in 1998, followed by Japan in 2003 and Australia in 2011.
Albania, Iceland, and Paraguay now get all of their electricity from renewable sources (Albania and Paraguay 100% from hydroelectricity and Iceland 72% hydro and 28% geothermal).
Costa Rica (99% renewable, with 90% hydro), Tajikistan, and Norway (97% hydro) are also very close to the 100% renewable mark.
China is way ahead of the pack in installations
According to data-aggregation company Statista, the leading countries for installed renewable energy in 2023 were China, the U.S., Brazil, India, and Germany.
China added around 1,453 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, while the U.S. added around 388 GW.
Brazil came in third with 194 GW, India added 176 GW, Germany 167 GW, Japan 127 GW, while Canada added 109 GW of renewable-sourced energy to its mix.
We still need to generate a lot of energy
While the increase in global renewable capacity is encouraging, it’s important to remember that the world is using more energy than ever. There are still a lot of places and large swathes of population, particularly in Africa, that are only just being connected to electricity and others that still won’t have access for some time yet.
Meanwhile, our increasing reliance on technology means a need for constant connectivity and, therefore, a steady flow of electricity. The massive computing centres that are needed to run artificial intelligence (AI) processes use mind-boggling volumes of both electricity and water.
It’s been estimated that the AI sector will require as much energy annually as the entire nation of the Netherlands within just a couple of years! And that’s only the AI sector, without including the growing needs of cryptocurrency processes or regular data centres. Maybe AI will find a smarter way to deliver that affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy we all need.
Statista reports that “Fossil fuels remain the greatest source of electricity generation worldwide. In 2023, coal accounted for roughly 35.5 percent of the global power mix, while natural gas followed with a 23 percent share”.
This Renewable Energy Tracker is more sobering
The Renewable Energy Tracker (RET), by the Platform of Action for Renewable Energy, is an assessment of countries’ progress towards 100% renewable energy systems.
It covers 60 countries representing 85% of global population and accounting for about 90% of total greenhouse gas emissions and energy use. It looks to recognise those countries that are performing consistently better than others across the majority of indicators assessed.
To be assessed as “up to speed”, countries must have increased their shares of renewables over the past four years at a pace that would allow them to achieve 100% renewables in both the power sector and economy-wide by their respective and equitable target years.
None of the 60 countries was assessed as up to speed and only one, Sweden, was close enough to be classified as “almost” there.
Australia ranked 24th while fellow G20 members Japan (32nd), Canada (33rd), South Korea (46th), Saudi Arabia (47th), and Italy (48th), were assessed to be lagging behind significantly.
Australia has reached a significant milestone
In publishing its Clean Energy Australia 2024 report a couple of months ago, the Clean Energy Council was bullish about several pieces of data.
The fact that renewables comprised 39.4% of Australia’s total generation in 2023, an increase of 9.7% in a single year, was seen as a landmark achievement.
Rooftop solar is still growing, now accounting for 28.5% of all renewable generation. The 337,498 households and businesses that installed rooftop solar last year was an increase from 315,499 in 2022.
The report also noted that investment in large-scale storage projects jumped from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $4.9 billion in 2023, with 27 utility-scale battery projects under construction accounting for a total of 5 GW.
Reducing energy consumption and electrification
For a greater understanding of the challenges ahead, this Research Note: Measuring progress in Australia’s energy transition, by Ai Group’s Director of Research and Economics Dr Jeffrey Wilson, is well worth a read.
He outlines a number of key things that perhaps don’t immediately spring to mind when we think about Australia’s energy transition, including:
- Three quarters of Australia’s energy use is by industries, not households.
- Data from the ABS’s Energy Account shows that direct use by households – which includes our use of privately-owned cars – only contributes 22% of net energy use in Australia.
- Over the past decade, Australian industries have collectively reduced their energy intensity – measured as gigajoules of energy used per million dollars of output – by a significant 21%. Households have also done their part, cutting per person energy use by 23% over the same period.
Importantly, Dr Wilson says further significant decarbonisation will require greater electrification, that is, replacing energy currently provided by other fuel sources with electricity. And that means that we’ll need to generate a lot more electricity.
As he concludes, we’re only about a sixth of the way to the annual clean energy output we ultimately need.
So yes, there does still seem to be a way to go, but there has also been lots of progress already, and that sometimes gets forgotten.